Tuesday, October 03, 2023

spaghetti alla carbonfibre

I see I didn't do a stats update in the wake of Europe's demoralising defeat in the 2021 Ryder Cup, so I guess a catch-up is in order in the wake of Europe's glorious victory in the 2023 edition.

Year Foursomes Fourballs Doubles Days Singles Overall
Eur USA Eur USA Eur USA Fri Sat Eur USA Eur USA
1979 3 5 2½-5½ 5-3 11 17
1981 2 6 10½ 4½-3½ 1-7 4 8 18½
1983 4 4 4 4 8 8 4½-3½ 3½-4½ 13½ 14½
1985 4 4 5 3 9 7 3½-4½ 5½-2½ 16½ 11½
1987 6 2 10½ 6-2 4½-3½ 15 13
1989 3 5 6 2 9 7 5-3 4-4 5 7 14 14
1991 2 6 6 2 8 8 3½-4½ 4½-3½ 13½ 14½
1993 5 3 4½-3½ 4-4 13 15
1995 5 3 2 6 7 9 5-3 4-4 14½ 13½
1997 5 3 10½ 4½-3½ 6-2 4 8 14½ 13½
1999 10 6 6-2 4-4 13½ 14½
2002 8 8 4½-3½ 3½-4½ 15½ 12½
2004 6 2 5 3 11 5 6½-1½ 4½-3½ 18½
2006 5 3 5 3 10 6 5-3 5-3 18½
2008 7 9 2½-5½ 4½-3½ 11½ 16½
2010 5 3 n/a n/a 5 7 14½ 13½
2012 3 5 3 5 6 10 3-5 3-5 14½ 13½
2014 7 1 3 5 10 6 5-3 5-3 16½ 11½
2016 4 4 3-5 3½-4½ 11 17
2018 6 2 4 4 10 6 5-3 5-3 17½ 10½
2021 2 6 3 5 5 11 2-6 3-5 4 8 9 19
2023 7 1 10½ 6½-1½ 4-4 6 6 16½ 11½
Totals 93½ 82½ 93½ 82½ 187 165 92½-75½ 87-81 125 139 312 304

So one thumping win for the USA and one slightly less thumping win for Europe leaves the overall balance of the stats relatively unaffected. A couple of statistical nuggets to tease out of this year's:

  • the 7-1 result in Europe's favour in the foursomes mirrors the record margin (also in Europe's favour) from 2014;
  • slightly surprisingly, the 6-6 tie in the singles is the first one in the history of the event in its current form;
  • Europe continue to be slightly better than the USA in both the doubles formats, interestingly the extra columns I've added show they also do best on day one, Friday, with the margin narrowing significantly on the Saturday. The missing year, 2010, was the occasion of some catastrophic weather which necessitated a Monday finish and rendered all that by-day analysis meaningless;
  • winning both days of the doubles is quite unusual, even in matches that were relatively one-sided overall: Europe in 1987, 1997, 2004, 2006, 2014 and 2018; USA in 2012, 2016 and 2021. Of those years, only Europe in 2004, 2006, 2014 and 2018 and USA in 2016 and 2021 went on to also win Sunday's singles. 2012 at Medinah is unique in that a team won both days of the doubles competition and still lost overall.

Of course the key question here is: after all the doom and gloom at Whistling Straits, how did Europe turn it around to win? There are a few competing theories: some mystery illness affecting the USA team, rumblings over money, questionable USA preparation. There is also the question of the impact of the absent LIV golfers - USA had two LIV players absent who'd been in the 2021 team (Johnson and DeChambeau) whereas Europe had five (Garcia, Casey, Wiesberger, Poulter, Westwood) so in theory it ought to have had more of an impact on Europe. On the other hand at least four of those Europeans were coming to the end of long careers, and maybe an enforced end to their Ryder Cup participation actually had a beneficial effect?

All of this probably ignores the elephant in the room, which is that home advantage has become disproportionate. It has always been significant, with only six of the twenty-two modern tournaments resulting in away wins, but it's getting more so with only one of the last nine (Medinah again). As I sort-of predicted last time, five of the 2023 USA team (Scheffler, Clark, Schauffele, Morikawa, Burns) weren't born the last time they won a Ryder Cup on European soil. I agree with the sentiments expressed here: a few really tight finishes and the occasional away win would benefit the tournament as a whole.

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